Security Incidents in Palestine: Trends and Patterns

In Palestine... 431 humanitarian workers have died, 146 humanitarian workers have been wounded, 2 humanitarian workers have been kidnapped.

1 Executive Summary

This analysis examines security incidents in the Occupied Palestinian Territories from 2002 to 2025, revealing significant patterns and trends. Key findings include:

• Dramatic escalation in 2023-2024: Following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent Israeli military campaign, security incidents surged to unprecedented levels in 2024.
• Aerial bombardment is the predominant attack method, reflecting the nature of military operations in the region.
• Palestinians bear the brunt of the conflict, with nationals suffering significantly higher casualties than international personnel.
• Combat/crossfire contexts account for the majority of incidents, highlighting the risks of active conflict zones.

These findings have critical implications for humanitarian operations, civilian protection strategies, and policy development in the region.

2 Background: The Conflict

2.1 Historical Context

Palestine has experienced a complex and turbulent history of conflict that has significantly intensified in recent times. The current crisis stems from decades of territorial disputes and failed peace efforts:

• 1948: Israel displaced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians
• 1967: Six-Day War led to Israeli control of Gaza Strip, West Bank, and East Jerusalem
• 1990s: Oslo Accords established limited Palestinian self-governance
• 2006: Hamas won Palestinian elections and took control of Gaza
• 2014 & 2021: Major confrontations between Hamas and Israel

2.2 Recent Escalation

The situation dramatically escalated on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing over 1,300 Israelis and taking hundreds hostage. Israel responded with a full-scale war in Gaza that has had devastating humanitarian consequences:

• Approximately 90% of Gaza’s population displaced
• Over 46,000 Palestinian casualties reported
• Destruction of essential infrastructure including hospitals
• Severe humanitarian crisis with widespread food insecurity
• Limited access to humanitarian aid

A ceasefire was brokered in January 2025, but its implementation remains uncertain amid ongoing political tensions.

Map of Incidents

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3 Temporal Trends in Security Incidents

3.1 Incident Frequency Over Time

Figure 1: Security incidents

3.1.1 Analysis of Incident Trends

The line chart reveals a striking pattern in security incidents in the Occupied Palestinian Territories:

• Relative stability (2002-2022): For nearly two decades, incident levels remained relatively stable, typically below 10 incidents per year with occasional modest spikes around 2010, 2014, and 2020, corresponding to periods of heightened tension.

• Unprecedented surge (2023-2024): A dramatic shift occurred after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, with incidents surging to 68 in 2024 - representing approximately 43% of all recorded incidents in the entire dataset.

• Historical context: While periodic cycles of violence have occurred historically, the 2023-2024 escalation represents a significant departure from previous patterns in both scale and intensity.

This finding highlights the unprecedented nature of the current conflict, which has fundamentally altered security dynamics throughout the Palestinian territories.

4 Nature of Security Incidents

4.1 Predominant Attack Types

Figure 2: Most common types of attacks

4.1.1 Analysis of Attack Methods

1. Aerial bombardment is the most common type of attack in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, followed by shooting incidents. This distribution offers important insights:

2. Military nature of conflict: The predominance of aerial bombardment suggests a significant role of military forces with air capabilities in the conflict.

3. Diversity of threats: Beyond the top two methods, the data shows a range of attack types including shelling, bodily assault, and various forms of explosives.

4. Civilian vulnerability: Many of these attack types affect wide areas, putting civilians at significant risk even when not directly targeted.

4.2 Attack Contexts

Figure 3: Security incidents by attack context

4.2.1 Analysis of Attack Contexts

Combat/Crossfire is overwhelmingly the most common context for security incidents, accounting for over 100 incidents. This finding has important implications:

1. Collateral impact: Many incidents occur during active combat situations where individuals are caught between opposing forces rather than being directly targeted.

2. Conflict zone risks: Being in or near active conflict zones represents the greatest security risk in the region.

3. Security planning: Different contexts require different security approaches - avoiding combat zones entirely may be more effective than other security measures.

5 Human Impact of Security Incidents

5.1 Casualties by Category

Figure 4: Total casualties by category

5.1.1 Analysis of Casualty Patterns

There is a disparity in the impact of security incidents on different population groups:

• Disproportionate local impact: Nationals (local Palestinians) have suffered significantly higher casualties compared to international personnel, in both fatalities and injuries.

• Minimal kidnapping incidents: Kidnapping appears to be exceedingly rare, with only one recorded case involving international personnel and none for nationals.

• Scale of humanitarian crisis: The high casualty figures for nationals underscore the severe humanitarian impact of the conflict on local populations.

This pattern is not unusual in conflict zones, where local populations typically bear the brunt of violence. However, the scale of the difference is notable and has important implications for civilian protection and humanitarian programming.

6 Major Incidents

6.1 Top 5 Most Impactful Security Incidents

Table 1: Most impactful security incidents (by total affected)

	Year	Location	Total Affected	Killed	Wounded	Context	Actor Type
3834	2023	Unknown	92	70	22	Combat/Crossfire	Unknown
3897	2023	Unknown	46	41	5	Combat/Crossfire	Unknown
3913	2023	Unknown	31	31	0	Combat/Crossfire	Unknown
3969	2024	Office/compound	23	1	22	Combat/Crossfire	Host state
3876	2023	Unknown	19	0	19	Unknown	Host state

6.1.1 Analysis of Major Incidents

The table above highlights the five most impactful security incidents in the Occupied Palestinian Territories based on the total number of people affected. The most severe incident occurred in October 2023, coinciding with the Hamas attack on October 7th and the subsequent Israeli military response.

These major incidents share several characteristics:

1. Recent escalation: Most of the high-impact incidents occurred during the 2023-2024 conflict escalation.

2. High casualty rates: These incidents resulted in significant casualties, showing the intensity of the recent conflict.

3. Combat contexts: Most occurred in combat/crossfire situations, consistent with the broader pattern of incidents in the region.

For more detailed information on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict timeline, see the Council on Foreign Relations Conflict Tracker.

7 Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1 Key Findings

This analysis of security incidents in the Occupied Palestinian Territories reveals several critical patterns and trends:

1. Unprecedented recent escalation: After nearly two decades of relatively stable incident levels, 2023-2024 saw a dramatic surge in security incidents, reflecting the intensity of the conflict following the October 7th attack.

2. Predominant attack methods: Aerial bombardment and shooting incidents emerge as the most common types of attacks, highlighting the nature of military operations in the region.

3. Disproportionate impact on locals: Palestinian nationals have suffered significantly higher casualties compared to international personnel, underscoring the humanitarian dimension of the conflict.

4. Combat as primary context: Most incidents occur during active combat situations, suggesting that conflict avoidance is a critical security strategy.

7.2 Recommendations

These findings have important implications for security planning, humanitarian programming, and policy development:

7.2.1 For Security Planning

• Develop protocols specifically addressing risks from aerial bombardment and crossfire situations
• Implement enhanced early warning systems to monitor combat zone developments
• Establish clear evacuation procedures for areas at high risk of becoming combat zones

7.2.2 For Humanitarian Organizations

• Prioritize protection measures for local staff, who face disproportionate security risks

7.2.3 For Policy Development

• Support accountability mechanisms for documenting and addressing security incidents
• Promote conflict resolution initiatives to address the root causes of the escalating violence

7.2.4 For Future Research

• Continue monitoring security trends, especially given the recent escalation
• Investigate the specific factors contributing to the disproportionate impact on local populations
• Examine the effectiveness of different security measures in reducing casualties

By providing a data-driven understanding of security patterns in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, this analysis aims to contribute to safer and more effective operations in this challenging environment.